I feel like I'm getting pretty good at really narrowing people's hands down, and especially identifying when I'm beat, which is something I've historically been extremely poor at.
However, I'm absolutely HORRIBLE at actually folding when my opponent is telling me I'm beat, and my instincts say he's telling the truth.
Like when I have J9s OOP, call a raise, check-raise a 9 high flop against an opponent who cbets somewhere close to 100%, he calls, an ace comes on the turn, and I am SOOO confident he called the check-raise with just ace-broadway that I check, but still call pot on the turn and river, "knowing" he caught the ace, and lose a big pot OOP when he shows me AQ.
Or when I've caught TPTK, bet pot on the flop and the turn against a major calling station who check/calls, the river pairs the bottom pair on the board (which happens to be a 2), and he bets pot. I'm absolutely disgusted, because I *know* he just caught trips, but I make the call anyway.
Or take this one for example:
Full Tilt Poker, $50 + $2.50 NL Hold'em Sit n' Go, 10/20 Blinds, 2 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter
Hero (SB): 1,460
BB: 1,540
Pre-Flop: (30) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
<font color="red">Hero raises to 60</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to 100</font>, Hero calls 40
Flop: (200) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets 133</font>, BB calls 133
Turn: (466) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
[ 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets 233</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to 666</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to 1,227 and is All-In</font>, BB calls 561
River: (2,920) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
[ 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: 2,920 Pot
Hero showed 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a full house, Eights full of Nines) and LOST (-1,460 NET)
BB showed A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a full house, Eights full of Aces) and WON 2,920 (+1,460 NET)
After the raise on the turn, there was no question in my mind that he had an overpair. I mean, he even raised exactly to 666 for hell's sake.
But instead of saving those 1200 chips, against somebody I have kicked the crap out of numerous times over the past few days (winning this one would have made it 5 for 5), I dump em all into a pot against a hand that I'm pretty sure has me drawing to 2 outs.
I don't *think* I'm being results oriented here, picking out cases where I was beat as examples of spots where maybe I should have folded. In all three of these cases (and numerous others), I was beat, but in each case, I was pretty confident I knew where my opponent was at, to the point that I really felt like I could have pegged my opponent almost to two specific cards,
but I called anyway.
And I really don't think I'm having a bout of monster-under-the-bed syndrome, either, causing me to *always* feel like I'm beat. I don't always just assume I'm beat when my opponent bets like I am, and I feel like I'm getting better all the time at catching on to the subtle differences that make it possible to be fairly sure one way or the other. Even if I don't consciously or explicitly know exactly what those things are, my reads are getting more correct all the time. (And I made some super-sick-perfect reads at our home game this past weekend that were so good they made me a little bit giddy. Too bad I wasn't actually in the hand for most of them)
Of course, if I weren't making these calls, I wouldn't get to see the pace at which my reads are improving, so maybe it's not a completely horrible thing that I'm going through an ATM phase (well, technically it's not a phase...I've always been an ATM in these situations, I'm just now starting to realize I'm ATMing *before* I put the chips in), but my winrate at $50s ranges somewhere in the neighborhood of 56-58%, and I just know that if I could get over this one hopelessly retarded behavior, I could shoot over 60%, easy.
So for the sake of all that is good and right in the universe, PLZ HALPMEH B NOT 2 MUCH MORE DUM