[rwperu34]

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rwperu is under the impression that Brignac, Longoria, McGee, Davis, Sonnanstine, Howell, and Niemann all turn into above-average players. The reality is that the Rays will be lucky to get one perennial All-Star out of that group, one or two above average players, and a few contributors. Dewon Brazelton, anyone? Josh Hamilton? I could go on.


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Actually, I'm not under that assumption. How that gets extrapolated from Young has a higher EV than Garza and taking the highest EV is the best way to build a team?

I also wonder how Young gets anointed as a complete risky player with all this downside when Garza is clearly the riskier player? What if Garza is the next Brazelton or Hamilton? The point is, he's more likely to not be valuable than Young is, if for no other reason than because he's a pitcher. I guess you want to say that Bartlett is the least risky player in this deal, but he should be the final piece of the puzzle, not a building block.

On top of that, I forgot all about Niemann! Damn the Rays are deep in young pitching.

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And therein lies the problem; you simply cannot field a garbage team 8/10 years and expect to turn in good revenue. You can say what you want about the free agent market, but you will be hard pressed to sign ANYONE to your team if you just lose all the time; there ARE good deals in the FA market that teams need to buy when the time is right.


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It seems like I'm usually the one defending the spenders! Is this the time for the Rays? Hell no! They just improved their 2008 projected wins from 76 to 78. It's not worth giving up future value for that, and they did, even though it's "riskier".

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All you need to know about this deal is that they unload a redundant player (yes, he is good at what he does, but you cannot trade total nobodies for prospects) and a crappy infielder who hits for average and nothing else for a ready-now plus-plus shortstop and ready-now pitching (forget Rincon, Garza is what is important) to win more in 2008 and have more pieces to a MLB team in 2009 and beyond.


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I think this is where we have the disconnect. Who is going to start in RF and at DH for the Rays in 2008 and 2009? Gomes! He's a DH at best, and not a very good one. Baldelli? Don't forget a ton of his value was tied up in the fact that he was a good fielding speedy CF. If he can't stay healthy in RF, how good of a DH will he be? Dukes? Well, I like the upside, but do you really want to count on this guy?

EV baby! Especially when you are building, which the Rays are, even if it's for 2009.