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Old 11-30-2007, 06:33 PM
Austiger Austiger is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Austin, TX
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Default Re: Some Simplistic Assumptions That Would Justify My Play

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If you go for one you will win 23%. The touchdown plus half your chances of making a tying field goal.


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Where did this number come from? I'm assuming you used someone's estimate from this thread to get the 23%?

Wait- I just realized, you're using the 3% TD + 1/2*40% FG? That's not going to be correct. The 3% TD is for when you are down 2 and don't need the TD to win. If you are down 3, you are obviously going to go for the TD much more often than if you're down 2 (see the Oregon St/Cal finish.)
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