Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
Trying for a middle on the WAS/NE game. I've got:
WAS +17 -115 5.75u
NE -15.5 -110 5.5u
4 outcomes:
1) NE wins by 18 or more - lose 1st, win 2nd, -0.75u
2) NE wins by exactly 17 - push 1st, win 2nd, +11u
3) NE wins by exactly 16 - win both, +22.5u
4) NE wins by 15 or less or loses - win 1st, lose 2nd, -0.5u
The bet is +EV if the probability of case 2 or 3 occurring is > ~8%. From the analysis I've done, I think this is true.
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