[_Gabe_]

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I understand that you arent ahead of a ton of hands he is value betting, and he isnt bluffing a ton, but look at it from villains perspective.

You flatted preflop, then just called on a flop with a spade draw and ace or whatever. He doesnt figure you can have AQ or AA since you flatted preflop (i dont know you so maybe you can smooth call AQ or AA preflop, but most villains in at higher stakes will take that out of your range) so he figures the best hand you can have is 33 or maybe some weird Q9 or Qx hand. I would say Q9 is the best possible hand you can show up with given earlier action in his eyes. If you can't have the top two or three hands in your range here and he is aware of his image, a bluff here becomes much more likely.

no one can say if he is on that level, but if my opponent was close to this rationale i think i call. This would assume he is capable of turning some made hands into bluffs as well as bluffing missed draws (they all missed i could see him def having like J10s or something). One more thing to consider is that he was up to 50k, and as now down to 25k or whatever. Whenever players that you don't recognize as regulars experience those swings, they are more likely to over value hands or shove in bluffs or semi bluffs to try to desperately regain control of the match. I'd call.

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If he believes you are on a busted draw then he can call with almost his entire range. The only hand he could be trying to move you off of is Axss and I don't see him making this play to accomplish that goal.

His range of hands on the river, coupled with Hero's range of hands make this a bluff very rarely. He thinks his hand is best here almost all of the time in order to make this bet. I think Hero's best hope if he calls is that villain was value-betting a worse hand.