PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (9 handed)
Poker Stars Converter Tool from
FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">
2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">
4 folds</font>, BB calls.
Flop: (6.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 folds, BB calls.
Turn: (4.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero...
BB is a bit mouse-like: 23.5/1.96/0.71. He seems to play decent cards but now he's in the BB.
I want to bet here as a semi-bluff (and with a remote chance that I'm ahead). If raised I would drop it. Assuming I will check or fold UI on the river, I'd be getting 4.25:1 odds on my turn bet so it seems like I only have to induce a fold about 1 time in 5 to make a profit. Does this make sense?
[I guess the trickier decision comes if the villain calls and I improve on the river, very possibly improving to the second-best hand!]