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Old 11-27-2007, 03:53 PM
piggity piggity is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 423
Default Re: Donk of death the river?

[ QUOTE ]
Is he a good player? Your raise out of SB is likely 10-10+ or AQ+. You are not betting the turn w/JJ or AK (unless its specifically AsKs, and even then...). So, if he is a thinking player, he should figure that the only hand that bets the turn and checks the river that his 2 pair beats is KK. The probability of you having exactly KK is way below 50%. He checks behind unless he hit a set. Bet and get a crying call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Although I think the given SB range is a bit too narrow, thinking more about it I would like to reverse my position and agree with those advocating a bet (AsJs/AsKs don't fit with the flop 3-bet, and KK would likely c/f the river so BB checking behind seems likely indeed).
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