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Old 10-19-2007, 12:21 PM
Jim Morgan Jim Morgan is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: SF Bay Area
Posts: 70
Default Re: the 2nd nuts, first for low then for high.

Buzz,

You say that you are against 2 opponents when you do your analysis, but I think that is not really right. There were 5 opponents who saw the flop. If, and I am assuming your math is correct, each has a roughly 4% chance of being dealt KcXc, then it is more like 20% likely that someone had KcXc.

This ignores the more or less imposible task of knowing if some opponents would (correctly IMHO) fold KcXc with little else here and so forth. At these limits, I'd guess none of them would fold it.

I do, however, agree that raising here is a good thing.. Now a live deuce behind me should fold So should 2 pair and sets. I expect the man betting out just made a low, but maybe has a K high flush I may lose a paying custumer, but I think I will promote my low or protect my high enough to make this right. Getting nitty about sucking 1 player in here is overly greedy.

Hopefully I won't face a cold-call then a re-raise. Since the cold call could easily be a mistake (caling with a weaker flush, 2 pair, or a set), I'd be forced to call down, but I no like it anymore.
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