[baltostar]

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Baltosar: 2/3 of your decisions this hand were incorrect.

The fact that we have to talk about your 4th is a result of your poor play from other spots in the hand.

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What are you referring to ?

Limping big pairs in EP didn't yield results in this hand, but that doesn't mean it's always 100% wrong.

I assume you're not referring to the flop. I likely have the best hand.........

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hello balto,

i think this is where your analysis runs aground. you are very likely a 2-1 dog on this flop 6 ways.

i mucked around with poker stove giving you kk and the bb as random with the 4 other limpers as any pair, any 2 b'way, sc's 54+, 1 gappers 75s+, 2 gappers T7s+ and all Axs. that's about 24.6% of hands.

once you limp with every succeeding player, their odds to come in the pot get better and better.

in this 6 way pot, KK is no better than 35% to win this hand on this flop. there are just so many players that at least one of them will run into a flop here.

which is , of course, why one endeavors to play big pairs heads up, not 6 ways.

if you are going to play this hand by limping utg, you must have a plan ahead of time to hit the eject button at some point if it isn't raised pf. there is no way to put the caller of your flop bet on any real range. but you do know many of his possible hands that you were ahead of on the flop, have you almost drawing dead after the turn.

i just don't see the point in getting broke with one pair when 6 people see a flop in an unraised pot.

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Right, I totally agree. That's why I said above that having a bunch of limpers call was not one of my hand goals, and once it happenned I reduced my reasonable expectation for the hand way down: I knew the odds were against me to get much out of the hand.

Interesting stuff you did with stove, b/c that's exactly what I started thinking yesterday. I am thinking you have to check most flops in this scenario. With 5 opponents, you could easily see one of them lead-out and get raised, which allows you to bail.

But none of the above is why I posted the hand. I was just interested in what people thought about the ratio of the chance the turn shove is a semi-bluff to chance it's a panicky over-value-bet.