Re: Why don\'t coaches understand fundamental math?
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My particular favorite situation is a team down by 14, until it scores a touchdown with a minute to go. The only realistic chance of winning is to score a second touchdown, and hold the other team scoreless. So assume this happens, if it doesn't, nothing you do matters.
If you go for one point conversions both times, you have 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.5 = 0.45 chance of winning (assuming you get the second touchdown and hold the other team scoreless). If you go for a two point the first time, then a one point the second time if you make the two, and a two point the second time if you miss the two, you have 0.45 x 0.95 + 0.55 x 0.45 x 0.5 + 0.45 x 0.05 x 0.5 = 0.56 chance of winning. You can play with the numbers all you want, within reason it always comes out better to go for two. It's even more true in lower levels of football where the chance of the one-point is less than 0.95 and the chance of a two point is more than 0.45.
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Good post. David Sklansky started a thread on this exact subject sometime last year.
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