Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
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your M = 36984/2400 = ~15.5
his M (after he bets) = (45139-2600)/2400 = ~17.75
pot = 5000 = ~2 Ms
3-bet = 3-4 Ms
if he 4-bet min-raises and you call that's 6-8 Ms, leaving you 9.5-11.5 Ms
stop-and-go is better : call and bet flop no matter what
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What is his 4betting range? And would he min raise?
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I don't know either of these players. Not sure what villain's 4-bet range is or whether he'd more than min raise (I just put min-raise b/c it's best case for hero and it's still lame).
If villain is lag his steal raise is wide enough that pps are maybe 25% of it, so he has nothing on flop 50% of the time, and maybe 60% of that he's only on 2nd pair or worse. Stop-n-go with 1/2-2/3 pot bet on flop no matter what tends towards max reward/risk.
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