[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
without a specific tard read on the guy I'm going to feel really good about bet/folding the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hobbs.,

good to see you posting. seems like it's been a while.

when i'm playing online, most of the games inwhich i play require the assumption that most average/basic opponents are aggrotards. this profile is highly prevalent in today's online environment at the small/mid stakes tables(both 6max and FR).

for that reason, not showing this hand down(ESPECIALLY on such a drawy board) is probably giving up too much in the long run.

you state that an incorrect call on his part will possibly be made when i bet. this means he often holds a 2-6 outer. if that's the case, i don't think i give much up by checking the turn(when ahead) assuming he will bluff the river a decent amount when he misses. since i asserted earlier that the avg opponent in a small stakes online game is far too aggressive, it stands to reason on this board, in this situation against an aggressive opponent the river will be bluffed a relatively high percentage of the time. this seems to support the fact that checking is a viable play.

the pot is less than 4BB on the turn so i'm less concerned about "protecting" my hand with a bet. on that board(because of all of the draws possible), if i'm checkraised i must call down a good portion of the time. don't get me wrong; most of the time i get checkraised i'm behind, but because i see a semibluff often enough due to my opponent's aggression factor i'm forced to see a showdown.

this also has the effect of lessening the frequencies of the turn checkraise in my opponent's postflop aresenal. he will be forced to risk the turn checking through, or resort to donking the turn. this helps me read his hands later because most of his checks will be his "giving up".

if the pot was bigger i would bet. if my hand was a bit weaker, i would feel better about bet/fold. in this situation, on that board with this guy i am of the opinion i give up less and thwart his strategy more correctly by checking behind.

the other benefit of checking is that some reasonable amount of the time i actually gain from the free card by improving on the river and outdrawing my opponent's hand when i was behind on turn. when this is the case, i also avoid being checkraised on the turn when behind.

taking all of this into account, i'm checking behind a good portion of the time here. probably over 60%. to mix my play, i'm betting turns or my strategy becomes too obvious. but in general, i think the benefits(and cost) of checking outweigh the gains/risk of betting. i'm open to being proven wrong, though.