Re: Why is Deal or No Deal not the Monte Hall problem?
I'm not sure if this is going to help me, but what you and Sheets added made me think of this possible explaination:
- In the "LL's Monte Hall does DoND", I'm going to intentionally not show you the Ace.
- Also, the other card you end up with to choose from (in this case, the 5) is not going to be exposed either 90% of the time, because it's ....
(never mind, that doesn't work- too many conditions).
I have to come up with a simple explaination that makes it clear how unlikely I was to not have to expose the 5 in the big pile, along with intentionally not exposing the Ace in the big pile...
Something along the lines of "you knew I wouldn't expose the Ace, so how likely was it that I wouldn't have exposed the other card (the 5) before I'd gotten down to two cards to choose from?"
Maybe something with the birthday thing that Sheets came up with.... eh, I don't know. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
|