[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]
Value Raising Range: 8x/88/99/JJ/KK; Possibly AK/KQ/KJ/AA

How often is he bluffing? Pretty much never.

Ok, so how many 8x hands are in his range? Well, you beat 87/86/85/8T/8A. I think a lot of players will fold all of those hands to a raise, so I would say the 8x hands should be heavily discounted from his range.

How likely is he to be overvaluing AK/KQ/KJ/AA? I don't think it's very likely that he's shoving w/ 1 pair of kings, that's a pretty bad play that I don't think a lot of players will do, so unless you have a read that he's terrible and/or overplays hands, I would discount these hands from his range as well.

His line fits 88/99/JJ pretty well, KK is somewhat less likely because of the flatcall preflop.

You're getting ~4 to 1. So does he show up w/ a worse hand 20% of the time? I don't think he does.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice post. I think villains do show up with a worse hand 20%+ of the time and I think that villains have some of the hands that you discounted. If hero folded this, I would guess he feels that this villain does not and that seems reasonable to me. Villain has called off 10% of his stack pre-flop and then called a one thing or the other flop when he hasn't before, so he has something.

However, the reason why I think, that even for this villain, we really have to call is because while villain may have to bad to value push a naked king on this board, I think that's fairly common 'bad' (no idea about FTP). If villain has AK, and he's trapping the lag by calling OTB and see's this flop, all that's in his mind is setting this trap. He calls on the flop, because there is no value raising, checks behind on turn because he wants hero to bet the river and when hero does bet, he pushes.