Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
Assuming a tight range of TT, AQs, AKo.
There are 12 AK and 16 JJ+ that valuebets
There are 3 TT and 4 AQs.
You get 10.5:1 and need to be good 8.7%. This means he needs to bet TT and AQs with p % probability where p solves
p*7/(p*7 + 28) = 8.7%
Implying p = 2.4/6.4 = 37.5%
If I am doing those calcs correctly I would say close but prolly fold against a tight range.
Now assume a range of 99, AJs, AQo
He is valuebetting 12 AK, 16 JJ+, 2 AJs and 3 99. So as before he needs to bet TT and AQo (there are 3 + 16 = 19 of those) with p prob where p solves
p*19/(p*19 + 33) = 8.7%
p = 2.9/17.4 = 16.7%
One problem about the loose range is that he might check behind AJs and QQ.
Anyhoo. Against a nit its close but prolly a fold. Against a loos'ish capper I'd call
EDIT for the 99 bummer
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