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This actually turns out to be a semi-interesting probability question.
After I posted that I then ran the numbers on the % chance of 50 loses in a row if you just play 50 tournaments like you did. For an itm of 15% that's obv just 0.85^50 like you said.
And I guess it isn't anymore complicated than that value multiplied by (3000-50) for the % chance of getting a run of 50 losses in a row? (It seems like it should be but I can't find it.)
What's also interesting is that an increase of a 1% point in itm% decreases this 50 loss run by a factor of two. I guess not suprising considering the exponent.
I would imagine most that call them professionals are better than 15%.
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It's a question that has a lot of statistic signifance, and your proposed solution is completely off. See
http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Run.html
There are statistical tests that give easy-to-calculate approximations but I need to go to sleep so I am not looking it up ina book.