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Old 11-30-2007, 12:35 AM
tailspin4540 tailspin4540 is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 277
Default Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do


MP1 is a prima grinder regular. he runs at about 15/8/2+ aggro. He isnt very imaginative but does value bet and is decent if somewhat ABC postflop. We've played enough together for him to know Im TAG.

So heres the deal. Once he caps preflop, given I 3bet in the BB (he should know Im not betting light here), his range is almost certainly AA-JJ and AK.

On the turn, if i check and he bets and I dont CR then he will know i dont have a spade. so he will value bet (correctly) with any spade in his range on both the turn and river. You can assume that he will also value bet KK and QQ (without a spade) and probably JJ if i check it down...although to be fair he MIGHT check behind the river if he has QQ/JJ but no Spade.

So heres where the maths come in..and it shouldnt be that hard to do.

1. Given his range, what are teh odds he has a spade?
2. Based on 1 and given the reads i gave, is calldowning down reasonable?
3. Is bet/fold the turn better than c/c?
4. If we give him a slightly wider range (add hands like TT, AQs) does it change anything?

I encourage noobs to have a go at this

Prima Network 1.00/2.00 Hold'em (7 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (20 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls.

Turn: (13 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero Ponders....

[/ QUOTE ]

1. If I'm counting the combinations correctly, there are 30 possible live combos of AA-JJ and AK (including A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], but we may be able to discount this somewhat since villain didn't cap the flop). All four of the A,K,Q, and J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] are out, so there are 10 ways he can have those pairs with a spade. Add the possible AK combos (A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Kx), and that's five more. So there's a 50 percent chance he has a spade. That's not good for us.

2. I don't think so. I think, given the action, he has a very good idea of what we have, and if he has the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] he probably knows exactly what we have.

3. If we check, you say he can bet a worse hand like KK or QQ with no spades. I'm leaning toward bet/fold only because if he doesn't have a spade, we'll probably win the pot with a bet here. I'm really not sure, though. (Given your description of him as "not very imaginative" and "ABC postflop", I'm not afraid of a bluff-raise. If I do bet, it's the last bet I'm putting into this pot.)

4. Adding TT, A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] brings the chances under 50%, but not by much, and certainly not by enough to do anything differently.
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