View Single Post
#32
11-29-2007, 08:15 PM
 OziBattler Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: 363ing the micros Posts: 3,940
Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do

[ QUOTE ]
:grunch:

Ok, here we go:

1. Odds he has spade is 14/27 = 51.9%.

2. Calling down reasonable? YES – big mistake not to
Scenario 1 – Villain Bet / Bet
a) has spade = -2BB*0.519 = -1.038BB
b) no spade = +15BB*0.481 = +7.215BB
EV = +6.177BB
Scenario 2 – Villain Bet / Check (50% of time)
a) has spade = -2BB*0.519 = -1.038BB
b) no spade but QQ/JJ = +14BB*0.11 = +1.55BB
c) no spade = +15BB*0.37 = +5.55BB
EV = +6.062BB
So, you lose out on ~6BB by not calling down.

3. Is b/f better than c/c?
No, I can’t see b/f giving a better EV than 6BB.

4. Wider range?
Odds he has spade go to 18/35 = 51.4%...so no real change here
EV on scenario 1 above doesn’t change and scenario 2 EV goes down a little but not enough to change anything.

[img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I havent checked the numbers in detail (14/27 and the extra range not changing much is right though) but in general this looks good and I agree with the sentiment so obviously Ill say Well done. nice grunch.

kudos to Mav too