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Old 11-15-2007, 12:24 AM
sharpie sharpie is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
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Default Re: Value bet this river? - 55

I have been betting here but it seems very thin and I wonder whether this is too thin of a spot. Even if we're ahead when called 55% of the time, we only have to be bluff raised a fraction of the time to lose all value (our bet shows .1BB expectation when we never get bluffraised, when we get bluffraised we lose 6.5BB vs checking behind, so we only need to be bluffraised 1/65 times to lose value).

Given the read it's debatable whether we're even ahead 55% of the time since he might even play a weak queen like this, and also while bluff check/raising the river is rare, this guy seems like the type who could be capable of it, at least a small fraction of the time.
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