Re: National Championship
I think there's a pretty clear reason for the disparity on the Kansas/Colorado game. It's turnovers. Kansas is +9 on turnovers this year while Colorado is -8. That's a difference of 2.64 TO per game. If you treat turnovers as a completely random event, then that's 10.6 PPG of "bad luck" that's gone either for the Jayhawks or against the Buffaloes.
Add 10.6 + 4 points for HA in a close game and you get a 3.5 point difference between Kansas and Colorado which just so happens to be the current line value. I'm not 100% sure that Sagarin doesn't account for turnovers, but my belief is that he just uses the final scores of games as his input. Can anyone confirm or deny this?
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