[Mr Rick]

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I see your point but I think you made a typo. Assuming one other opponent the chances of hitting that one card would be 1 in 42 instead of the 1 in 46 I had mistakenly assumed. This takes into account the 3 flop cards, 1 turn card, 2 opponent cards, 2 of my own cards, and the 2 prior burn cards.

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No typo. There are 25 cards in the reshuffled stub and the exposed card is one of them. Actually I did make a mistake it hits 1 in 25 or 4%.

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OK I see my mistake. All of the dealt hands don't make it into the stub. I get to 26 cards left because even though there is another burn card on the turn, that card could be the exposed card and the player never gets to see it... The 26 cards left takes into account the 3 flop cards, 1 turn card, 18 opponent cards , 2 of my own cards, and the 2 prior burn cards.

The result would be 16.2% after fiasco vs. 16.5% before fiasco. Not a big deal...

However, if the exposed card were to be reshuffled into the stub before the turn, the chances of the gutshot coming out would now be 19.4% !!! (this is because that card would have a 1/27 chance of showing up on the turn...). So there would be an unfair advantage if a significant card was reshuffled for the turn.

Wow do I have egg on my face. Thanks for showing me the light, RR.