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Old 06-29-2007, 12:26 PM
Kurn, son of Mogh Kurn, son of Mogh is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Rhode Island and Providence Plantations
Posts: 9,146
Default Re: Let\'s take this street by street...

I'm with you. I see all these posts about punishing draws and not giving the button a free card and I scratch my head.

Those are valid concerns when you're ahead, or have a reasonable expectation of being ahead more than half the time. On this board, with 3 opponents, I'd even agree with that if I thought we were ahead even 1/3 of the time. The K on the turn makes that highly unlikely. I seriously doubt we're ahead more than 20% of the time vs the range of hands our 3 opponents have played up to this point. I don't think there's 5-10% fold equity in betting (i'm happy if someone proves me wrong, though)

We have enough pot equity to call one bet here, but making that bet is negative marginal equity. We want to get to showdown cheaply, so we don't hate the free card. Plus, if we bet and the button raises, no draw folds, so betting doesn't add equity by knocking anyone out.

I check and call one bet.

Also, if we check and the button bets, we save a bet when one of the players in front of us decloaks with a big hand.
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