Re: 666 flop
One addendum, and I think it deserves a separate post...
I reasoned for a fixed-limit game.
The reasoning for a pot-limit game would be different. If Hero doesn't bet on the second betting round, an opponent behind him may bet. And then Hero won't know if Villain has a six or not.
Hero has to find out right away if Villain holds a six.
Phil is a pot limit player. Directly betting on the second betting round in a pot limit game makes much more sense than checking because Hero has to judge as soon as possible if he is beat or not.
The difference is an opponent with a six can bet the pot on each betting round. Instead of losing a maximum of just 5 small bets by staying for the showdown, Hero could lose 63 big blinds!
It makes good sense to bet on the second betting round, hoping to win the pot outright or get information. Then if an opponent calls, it becomes a cat and mouse game.
My problem with pot limit is that it would not clear to me, if holding the pair of aces, whether I was the cat or the mouse!
Buzz
Edit: This is where short stack strategy might come into play. There are 7 big blinds in the pot. Hero expects to win 21/45 and lose 24/45.
Let's see... how about
7*21/45 + X*21/45 = X*24/45
7*21 = 3X
49 = X.
If my algebraic formulation is correct, if Hero goes all-in for 49 big blinds, and if Villain calls, then Hero figures to break even.
Thus if Hero expects Villain to call with or without the case six, Hero can go all-in for less than 49 big blinds and expect to show a profit. If Hero only has seven big blinds, it would seem an easy push. With up to 48 big blinds, it would seem an easy push.
I don't know... this is my first venture into trying to figure out how to play a short stack in a pot limit game. I could easily be missing something. Someone who knows better than I do should correct me if I'm wrong. Thanks in advance and I won't even reply.
Buzz
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