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Old 11-07-2007, 05:56 PM
WhiteWolf WhiteWolf is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 930
Default Re: 25NL: Mathematical Call?

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Two streets left, not one. We're 1.2-to-1, easy call.

Edit: If it was one street left, why would you assume that 90% of us would make a call not getting the odds??? Or is it that 90% of the total player pool for this level would call?

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Has nothing to do with how many streets are left. (NL Holdem: A guide to cash games") I can't give you a reference b/c i dont have the book in front of me. But flush draws are 4-1 dogs, which means you will hit your hand roughly one time out of 4. I have a combo draw which increases it to roughly 3-1. hence i need 3-1 from the pot to make a call. if im only getting 2.5-1 from the pot, that means i have to hit my hand once out of every 2.5 hands to make this call, but I will only hit it once out of every 3.

Second, I was referring to the general quality of play at this limit that most people would make that call on the flop. i said nothing about the turn.

Lol at 1.2-1. What are you talking about here? You're suggesting that we'll hit a 12 outer 83.33% of the time. I think you need to study draws and pot odds as a combination learning tool. You are calling down with draws waaaay too often if this is what you're saying.

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Are you serious? Everyone is all in on the flop, if we call here we get to see the turn and the river for free, so of course I count the odds of us hitting on the turn or river when I'm calculating my winning chances.

The principle you talk about of only counting the odds for hitting the next card on the turn applies when there is a good chance you will be facing another bet on 4th street. That just doesn't apply here.

1.2-to-1 is 45% to hit, not 83% and yes with 2 streets to come 45% is the chance I hit my 12-outer if I call the all-ins on this street. I have no idea where you get your 83% chance number.

4-to-1 means I hit my draw 1 time out of 5, not 1 time out of 4 as you state. In other words, for every 1 time I hit, I miss 4 times.

I'm suspecting the chances are actually pretty good you're a troll. If you are, well played, because you're about to get dozens of posts explaining exactly why it is YOU don't understand odds.
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