[kyro]

Haven't seen these go up recently, so thought I'd do mine. These aren't like PokerFink's. I'm using a combination of a team's record, how a team has played, and how I expect them to play presently.

1) Pats - When the books have you giving up 15 points on the road to a 5-4 team with a good defense, and people nod their heads and go "about what I expected", you're a pretty good team.

2) Colts - The Colts played about as bad as...no wait, worse than you thought they possibly could, on the road, against a probable playoff team, and still had a chance to win it with a 29-yard FG. When and if this team gets healthy, they are still by far the second best team in the league.

3) Steelers - You know what would be neat from this team? Consistency. When this team is playing well, they could give the Pats and Colts a run for their money (that is until Brady decides to just bomb one to Moss for kicks). When this team isn't playing well. Stuff like losses to the Cardinals and Broncos, and the entire first half of the Browns game happen. This team was #1 in DVOA variance going into Week 10.

4) Titans - I'm gonna get "needled" for this. I think it's a tossup with the #5 team. Great defense, not-so-great offense. I haven't seen much of the Titans this year, so I'm only going by last week's DVOA and this week's relative MOV.

5) Jaguars - Once again, haven't paid much attention to the Jags either. I'm kinda surprised their offense is as good as it is, and as surprised their defense is as bad as it is. Figured it would be the other way around. The Jags have 2 very difficult road games (Colts/Steelers) left, but they have 5 very winnable games left. 11-5 isn't a stretch, but I think 10-6 is more likely.

6. Chargers - This team was 14-2 last year. Wasn't sure if you guys knew that. This team is talented enough to be at the top, yet with road games against Jax, Tenn and KC, I'm not entirely convinced they'll make the playoffs.

The rest for now...

7. Browns
8. Bengals
9. Bills
10. Texans
11. Broncos
12. Chiefs
13. Ravens
14. Dolphins
15. Raiders
16. Jets