Re: Did He Touch Home?
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It's not just the possibility of the walk. It's the batter knowing you can't walk him, which gives him a significant advantage, especially if he gets ahead in the count.
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Did you just make this first part up?
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Well, I don't have a specific stat for it, but it seems obvious that a batter with say a 3-1 count in a tie game bottom of the 9th with the bases loaded can be a lot more certain a fastball (or at least an attempted strike) is coming than a batter in the same situation but with a base open. I don't see how that would even be disputable. Then, is it such a leap of logic to surmise this knowledge would give the batter an advantage?
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How do these disadvantages compare to having a force at every base? Because, just intuitively, I'd say having a force at every base>>>>>all the rest of this crap, the only meaningful thing being you could walk a guy.
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My intuition is opposite. I don't think the difference is as severe as your assessment, and the possibility of a x-2-3 DP shifts the balance a little bit, but unless my pitcher had rock-solid control, or the current batter was markedly better than the next two guys up, I'd rather have the luxury of being able to pitch around the guy than the force at home.
But the win expectancy looks like the situations are almost identical. So it would all depend on the variables.
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