[stephenNUTS]

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i'd imagine this would work best in stocks that the stupid general public have a lot of interest in, and everyone thinks they're experts in (GOOG for example). the challenge of course is figuring out how the stupid public prices those stocks.

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actually scratch that... the moronic public doesn't try to price stocks, they just buy because they think OMG GOOGLE. maybe there's something there but it's obviously pretty complicated.

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The General public is SO WRONG in many more ways than you can ever imagine:

1. The Google IPO which was a dutch-auction where basically the GP had the ability to "bid" the price and submit that bid to their broker....the openong price I believe was $85...and IMMEDIATLY was BID up to $100 the first day.Many of these GENIUS John Q.P.s...sold their stock in the $100-125 range,and took home their nice profit....while the PRO's valuing GOOG MUCH higher bid it up day after day.....it is now up over 6x that price (and so far rightfully so fundamentally it seems also).Whats more amazing is I have had a few lay person friends who were in on the GOOG IPO,sold for a nice profit......and then got SO upset "selling too early"......they proceeded by trying to re-enter...getting in and out at EVERY wrong time,or even worse SHORTING Google, recently when it blasted through $700,giving all their profits and more back.....just AMAZING.

Instead of just buying and holding for a specific time/price target....whether they sold at $150...$250...$500...or still own it after the few short years GOOG has been public....their EMOTIONS took over with devastating results to these few,as so many public market participants do
However "IF" they listened to the "MARKET".....they would be sitting on a 6 bagger....and I just saw UBS raised their target on this MONSTER to $900 yesterday.Whether I think GOOG is worth/valued at todays current price or not isnt important.......but that fairly effortless 600% rise ...with stunning Fundys as well,along with solid technicals, was completely BUTCHERED by the original public perseption

2.As to Davids comment on bookmakers putting out the so called "TRAP/SUCKER" betting lines ....while I dont think the BM is intentionally making the line lower/higher to attract a certain side(a true BM business model wants TWO sided action to earn their respective 10% or higher vigorish on exotic bets(teasers,parlays,etc).They are NOT supposed to be gambling themselves ....making what "appears" to be wrong line to attract action.Small time BM's used to do this all the time to ATTRACT more money ...and get crushed by pro's middling them on 2-3 games a week sometimes

This "TRAP" line however just "looks to good to be true to the public",and they are WRONG probably 65% of the time on these occassions.To be clear though, I am basically talking about the most widely bet sport ...The NFL

3.As to horse racing...many consider the CLOSING price to be the "TRUE line,after everythings factored in(read below)

In simple terms paramutual wagering(which is technically diff, from sports betting) is a function of bettors picking their horses,the track then TAKING out its HUGE percentage from each respective betting pool(WPS wagering,exotics,DD's,exactas,trifectas,superfecta s,etc).So the TRUE odds are anything BUT.
For example after the tracks 20%+ take on any given pool.....the favorite going off at 2-1 paying $6 to win....when in actuallity it would be 7-2 with no track-take out.This is why BEATING the horses not ONE race is so difficult,as the TRUE odds of each race dont = the pool.It is NOT a zero sum game...as many dont even understand this believe it or not

I would also suggest this CLOSING PRICE is a myriad of factors such as standard handicapping,track conditions,jockey changes,tout sheets,various TIPS,superstitios betting such as horses name/silk colors/gate number/etc...ALL baked into one.

It used to be that many "PRO's" considered the opening line from the Racing Form to be the STRONGEST line based on that PRO handicappers ability.....and would then make their FINAL choice just based on these descrepencies alone in the opening/closing price JUST prior to post time after the clueless public entered the game.Smart money also has a way of "falsly" dictating the odds IMO also

4.NOW back to the market....There are MANY indicators still widely used that give the General Public ZERO creditabilty(such as the odd lot sales/specialist short sale ratio is one STILL widely followed).The GP ALWAYS seems to be TOO late to the party...whether it be buying/casing stocks WAAAY too high....or trying to catch the proverbial falling knife,averaging down.....refusing to SELL stocks until it is too late...which has ALWAYS resulted in that final capitulation type sell-off that pros look for in finding MAJOR market bottoms every few years.This indicator IMO is a geat indicator with regard to the GP...which is just based on basic physcology for the most part.

Anyway just my 2cents....and I must say,I happen to like this thread or am slowly adjusting to the DS method of posting.............OH please say no ..JK [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

GG,
Stephen [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

BTW...even though I did my share of gambling way back when,I DONT gamble on anything I dont feel I have an edge in anymore.I built many a BM's house....and kept alot of OTB's open in my early years [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]