[maverickai]

[ QUOTE ]
hmmm.he's aggressive and tight, but I think overcards will check this turn UI the majority of the time. Especially after raising the flop donker.

I'd check the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

But if he has over cards majority of the time, Wont' I be ahead here majority of the time?

I think this is a case when I can be getting one more bet from him since I figure I'm likely to be ahead to his overs.

Assumptions:
1) assume he'll call, since the pot is so big.
2) He'll still bet the river if he has overpairs, as he's TAG
3) He won't try to check raise me on the river, as I'm playing so passively, and his read on me would be I'd check behind him.

Hands I beat:
AK 16 hands
AQ 16 hands
AJ 16 hands
KQ 16 hands
KJ 4 hands
Total hands = 68

Hands I lose:
QQ 2 hands
JJ 2 hands
AT 8 hands
Total hands = 12

Total no. of hands = 80

EV of last river bet = ((68/80*1)+(12/80*-1)) = 0.7BB

Does this result mean that, I'll be betting 1BB, but with an EV of 0.7BB, and that means it's actually not a good bet?