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Old 11-28-2007, 11:07 AM
devin mac devin mac is offline
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Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 32
Default Re: 11 NLTRN - First two hands, fairly simple.

i agree with one of the early responders about the first hand. there's no reason to bet that hard. chances are he whiffed the flop in a big way with some random two cards, or hit a weak second/third pair at best. that guy's not calling a big bet. alternatively, if he nailed the flop in a big way, having limped (although unlikely at the level) 33, JJ, AQ, AJ, QJ, etc... he's either not going anywhere or he's planning to play back at you on the turn/river. in either scenario, a big turn bet doesn't get you anywhere since the only thing is does is fold the hands you're furthest ahead of.

the second hand, if you're going to try limping J2, you have to make a play if you hit the J. your jack is weak and you're vulnerable to a lot of cards on the turn. you need to take control of this hand and use your position. with the preflop limp, and flop bet out of position, you could reasonably be up against anything from a better jack, to overs, to a mid pair, to a 56 str draw, to an overcard with a 3 or 4 paired. my guess is the only thing you're likely not up against is a monster like a set, two pair, or an overpair.

make it 180 here and consider folding to a raise. you still have a lot of chips if you fold to aggression here, and can find better spots to play for a big chunk of your stack.

if called, i again think you can fold to aggression (on a card other than a J) and not lose too much sleep over it, especially if it's an overcard. a small bet on a non-7 undercard could be called, i suppose, but then you're still in the same uneasy spot with a lot of cards to scare you on the river.

if called, AND with the J on the turn, are you willing to put your stack on the line without a kicker? since you don't have any real history on this player, there's no way to know if they'd take a real shot at it with an unimproved mid pair or they're the type that would be passive to the second jack. The first hand doesn't help you much here since it's so likely he had complete trash when he folded to your overbet.

My turn/river line on the second hand might be passive, but i think that hand needs to be won or folded on the flop if you play it at all. This hand is a great example of why limping really iffy hands is generally advised against, since it just puts you into these very strange situations that feel horrible to fold, but at the same time don't make you feel confident that you're completely ahead. Assuming you're a better player than the villain, you can probably fold this one if you don't take it down on the flop with a raise, and still have more than enough chips to play a solid game and take him down later on.
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