[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Your opponent:
3253 hands
29.17/18.8/1.54
F: 2.0
T: 1.3
R: 0.98
WTSD: 43.5%
W$SD: 55.25%


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Villain's stats start out pretty similar to mine but end in a completely different place. How do you think a 29/19 gets postflop stats like these?

It's all about what he does on the turn and river with a pretty good hand. Villain's turn and river AF are depressed because he checks and calls when most of us would be betting and raising. He doesn't give his opponent an opportunity to fold his bluffs and other weak hands. Naturally this causes his good hands to reach showdown (bloated WTSD) where they usually win (bloated W$SD).

The high W$SD also suggests that he avoids most river bluffs.

Hero is seriously screwed here. Villain is exactly the sort of player who plays WA/WB with a ten. He also plays WA/WB with second pair but it would never occur to him to raise the river with it.

Folding the river is insane on general principles because bet-folding everything between AK and QQ is so exploitable it's ridiculous. I'd need a really amazing read before I deviated that far from "correct" play. So I call without hesitation.

But I must admit that a strict analysis based on pot odds and winning chances could easily show that folding is right versus this particular opponent. I certainly don't think this hand is worth paying two bets to show down. If my call button were truly broken I would fold with a clear conscience.

Other thoughts:

1. This problem is a mirror. Too many of you are putting Villain on the hand that you would have. That's a serious leak, folks.

2. This problem is flawed because Hero's playing style is not provided. Hero needs to put himself on a hand before he puts Villain on a hand. If you 3-bet light and then keep c-betting until someone returns fire then it's easy to understand why you think Villain has second pair. But if you would never value bet the river with AK (or even 77 [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]) then your mortal fear of rivered trips is well-founded.

3. That's why it's often true that there is no absolute correct play. What works for me might not work for someone else because our opponents see us differently. A good player has a consistent approach to the game. He doesn't play streets as if they were unrelated to the rest of the deal or the overall context of the game.