[MarkGritter]

I didn't say folding was necessarily the right option--- I just noted that if you really need to break to win, then folding is usually better than drawing. Obviously if you didn't need to break than either folding or drawing is a mistake.

(But it is a pure math exercise! One can, in principle, arrive at the game-theoretical frequencies for folding, patting, drawing, etc. And if you have some idea of what your opponent's strategy is, it is just a math problem to come up with an exploitive counter-strategy. "pure math" isn't about assuming that you're beat every time.)