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Old 11-19-2007, 12:13 PM
rwperu34 rwperu34 is offline
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Default Re: **Atlanta Braves offseason thread

[ QUOTE ]
Dude, he had a 666 OPS at Triple-A in the PCL. Wtf does that translate to in the MLB, EqA wise? .210? .200? Logan had a .241 EqA.

Speed and defense are basically the same. The two or three runs of supposedly plus baserunning Anderson may add are basically insignificant.

Ever heard of Geoff Jenkins? Cliff Floyd? Jeff DaVanon? Yep, taken right from Sheehan's column. None of these guys would require more than a one-year guaranteed contract. Super easy stuff. Go trade for a [censored] OF who will cost nothing.

The Braves aren't dumb. If they have Anderson in CF they substantially rape their chances of making the playoffs and cost themselves way too much. It's not happening.

[/ QUOTE ]

PECOTA projected Anderson to an eqa in the neighborhood of ~.240 heading into this year. That will come down slightly. They had him with a defensive WARP of 2.0 over ~125 games. That won't come down. Even if he's a replacement level hitter, PECOTA will project him as a two win player. Giving him a projection of 1.5 is conservative.

Da Vanon's WARP the last three years? (-.3),1.5, 1.3, he's 34, and not good defensively. Da Vanon is clearly a worse option than Josh Anderson regardless of price.

The 35 year old Cliff Floyd's WARP over the last two years? 1.4 and 1.6. No, he's not suddenly going to stay healthy. He's good for 300 PA max. With Floyd you lose defense at THREE positions. Again, clearly a worse option than Josh Anderson regardless of price.

Geoff Jenkins is 33 years old and has posted WARPs of 3.3 in each of the last two years. He's got that 6.9 from 2005 to cling to. At least he's a clear upgrade in talent over Anderson. You'd still be downgrading defensively in two spots, which decreases some of the benefit. If Jenkins will sign a 1 year, $4MM deal, he'd be a wash with Anderson in terms of value, although probably worth it if they can't spend the money elsewhere. There is a strong argument that money could be better spent on draft picks in June allowing them to trade a prospect for a rental in the second half of the season.

For crying out loud! Brandon Jones and Gregor Blanco are better options than the first two guys you mentioned and still more cost effective than Jenkins. Those are the two guys you should be comparing Anderson against, not some old nag free agents.
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