Re: DERB
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No according to the math it there is maybe about 5% (not trivial)
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Where does this 5% number come from? I mean, I believe james is probably right and derb is the 'lotto winner' but I think over 100k hands it is much less than 5% that a bad player could win this much. I'd say less than 1% chance. This is the flipping the coin 10000 times and it comes up heads 70% of the time type situation.
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You need a much larger sample than 100K to give him a winning confidence interval of 99%!
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Even considering how high his BB/100 is?
I just learned about confidence intervals in a class. I should be able to figure this out. Im gonna try anyways.
edit-ok nm its already been done, i think this is what you are talking about anyways.
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Does anyone know from their PT DB what his Sigma/100 hands is? It has to be higher than what most of us are used to.
Since I don't have the data I can't do any serious analysis, but we can wait for Cypher for that.
Just for the fun of it I calculated the probability of a break even player running this well or better over 80k hands.
Assuming 80k hands and a winrate of 3BB/100:
Sigma/100 ---- Probability
15 ----------- 7.7e-9
20 ----------- 1.1e-5
25 ----------- 3.4e-4
30 ----------- 2.3e-3
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