[ZeeJustin]

This just seems obviously true.

1) Every chip you win in a tournament is less valuable than the chip before it.

If your equity is 40k at the start, that does not even come close to implying that your equity at any point is $4 per chip. I think this is obvious, but if needed I will explain this further.

The 40k equity you start with, that includes play for the whole tournament. For example, maybe you make blind level X 60% of the time. Doubling your chip stack will obviously not double your chances of getting that far.

Also, since you are better than the field, it is safe to assume that you will double up early on more than 50% of the time. If this is something that happens more than 50% of the time, and your resulting equity is 80k, that means your starting equity would have to be more than 40k. This logically doesn't follow since the 40k number is a given, therefore, the 80k number would be an overestimate.

I don't know if I explained myself clearly or not, I'll try again later if needed.

Edit: FWIW, even the 75k figure is an overestimate.