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Old 11-29-2007, 04:16 PM
innerpeace innerpeace is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: In deep meditation
Posts: 215
Default Re: pair + draw vs spewtard

quick mental calculations suggest that the decision here is pretty close depending on a number of factors:
1. how close his range is weighted towards AK vs JJ+
2. how much he bets if you check (since this affects what you win if you push and he folds).
3. the likelihood that he actually calls with AK.
4. potential fold equity vs. JJ+
5. small chance that he has something other than a premium hand and folds.

if he makes a psb on the flop and you think he is equally likely to do so with hands in the AK and JJ+ range, then pushing is clearly the correct play. even if he folds AK and calls JJ+, you win about 40% of the time and there is enough in the pot for fold equity to matter.

on the other hand, if you think he is slightly more likely to have JJ+ than AK -- even if it's 70/30 vs. 60/40, then pushing is closer to even money if not slightly negative.
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