Re: Bluff bet this river?
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you need both players to fold 15% of the time. even if the button folds 15% of his range and the old man folds 15% of his range, combined they're only folding around 2% of the time.
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Ah, I don't really think it's equivalent to calculating the odds of one rolling two seven-sided dice and coming up with snake-eyes.
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my point is if the old guy would fold 15% of the time and the button would fold 15% of the time and we view them as independent events(which in this case we likely can) it's only going to be around 2% of the time that they actually both fold in one occurrence.
basically we would need to get really generous and say that they both fold independently 39% of the time to achieve a combined frequency of 15% which is highly unlikely and thus makes betting the river a "spewtastic" play.
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