Re: Middle Set on Coordinated Board vs Maniac
My gut feeling was that he wasn't bluffing. I felt that it was most likely he was holding A4 or 46 for a straight.
On the flop, within his range I rule out all overpairs (he would have raised PF even with 66) and top set (I’m almost positive he would 3bet). 2 pair is possible but I still think he would pop. If he had air, which is well within his range, I’m positive he pushes or makes a big 3bet. What made sense to me in this unraised pot is A4 or 46 for a straight. Despite two spades on the board, I can see him flat call here hoping to keep in the first two callers. No question he’s maniac enough to take that chance.
When it becomes heads up with me OOP and the turn brings the third spade, I’m looking for my escape plan. Yes he’s a maniac, but my gut tells me he’s not bluffing here. If I check however, he bets and I’m left wondering as I fold. If I make a big bet, that commits me unwillingly. So I decided to make a defensive bet of half the pot, which seems to be the lesser of three evils. When he sighs heavily, pauses, then pushes, I know he’s got me beat.
After I folded, he mucked his cards but said he had a big hand. He could be lying, but he definitely didn't look like he was. I'm sure he would have shown otherwise. At least I hope so...
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