[Foghatlive]

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3.As to horse racing...many consider the CLOSING price to be the "TRUE line,after everythings factored in(read below)

In simple terms paramutual wagering(which is technically diff, from sports betting) is a function of bettors picking their horses,the track then TAKING out its HUGE percentage from each respective betting pool(WPS wagering,exotics,DD's,exactas,trifectas,superfecta s,etc).So the TRUE odds are anything BUT.
For example after the tracks 20%+ take on any given pool.....the favorite going off at 2-1 paying $6 to win....when in actuallity it would be 7-2 with no track-take out.This is why BEATING the horses not ONE race is so difficult,as the TRUE odds of each race dont = the pool.

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Perhaps I'm misunderstanding the way the tracks skim the takeout, but I don't see why it affects the odds.

Say there are 5 horses in the race and the total pool is $100.

Before the takeout, of let's say 20%, the fav has $50 on it, and the other 4 all have $12.50. After the takeout, the fav has $40 on it, and the others all have $10.

The favorite still has the same percentage of the total pool on it, as do all the other horses.

My problem with David's horse racing example is that it's not possible to execute because the odds can change dramatically after the betting is closed. So, you're basically guessing whether or not the bet meets the criteria.