Re: Suspicious Flop Calls?
In both hands we have to see if the value of getting called with a worse hand outweighs:
1) value gained from avoiding a costly checkraise and having to call down as a likely underdog/folding the best hand
2) value from opponent bluffing on river
3) value from the opponent catching a second best hand and now paying off an extra big bet on the river he wouldn't have otherwise
4) cost of letting the opponent outdraw us to one of his few outs
In hand 2 I think these factors point to a clear check, as we are behind all pocket pairs and a few Ahi hands as well (depending on the raising standards of the limper), and there is the potential to be bluff-raised out of the pot.
Hand 1 is closer, as villain could be on a FD and we are gaining value from all pocket pairs and Ahi hands. The 5 is also a more likely to have paired villain's hole cards than a deuce, and he is more likley to have raised a K preflop than a Q. Therefore, I like a bet here, and don't think it's that close.
Overall, I believe many who advocate the "bet, we have the best hand" approach in spots like this are underestimating the value of getting villain to bluff just a portion of the time or hitting a hand with which he can pay off an extra bet in such a tiny HU pot, as well as heroes savings from dodging a ch/r. This is especially true when villain is likely to be in peel one off and fold mode on such flops, but may change his mind after seeing hero's feigned weakness.
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