[villafan]

Button is a crazy maniac, so I would not worry about him, other than expect that he often will call the raise with a worse hand (maybe even raise it), so thats adds value to a raise.

The question, as I see it, is what hand does a player that never raise pre flop, but put money in the pot 25% of the hands, limp UTG with? I would think 25% players would play pairs and decent paint cards.

Given the fact that UTG just calls your raise, even when he knows there is a profitable maniac in the pot, makes me believe that he is seeking a showdown with a medium pair. With an AF at 2, he clearly uses the fold/raise buttons post flop with an ok frequency, thus suggesting he would raise good hands to extract more from the maniac and to fold out any overcards you may have.

The turn action adds support to the idea that he wants a cheap showdown.

If there is a huge chance that the maniac calls your river raise, then at worst your river raise produce the same amount of bets into the pot as if you just call and then get UTG to call behind.

But if UTG folds 88 here when he is faced with two bets, I also see a big possibility that he also would fold a hand like 10J. (he have to call two bets to win 13 bets, and how big difference is the 88 vs 10J with the action you have shown and the unusual pre flop passiveness that he has shown).

And if he calls with 10J, I would think he also would call with a hand like 88 or 99, and 108 (though I have ruled that hand out do to the pre flop play).

So I like the raise, I think it maximise your wins.


Does my thought process makes sense?