Re: Common turn problem - QQ
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if we expect him to buff more than 30% of the time we should c/c.
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Since this is not possible unless Villain is betting some hands he wouldn't call with, what you're basically implying is that we should check-call if Villain will bet anything he would have called with while also betting a few pure bluffs. And I agree with that, based on your assumptions.
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he will not call with many busted draws but may bluff them given the chance. by "bluff more than 30% of the time" I mean more than 30% of his river bets being bluffs.
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if we expect villain to bluff less than 12.5% of the time we should c/f.
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If I'm understanding your numbers correctly, your cutoff point is about 6 percentage points too high here.
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pot is 7BB after villain bets the river. the EV calculation for the river is
7BB*x - 1BB*(1-x) > 0
8BB*x - 1BB > 0
8BB*x > 1BB
x > 1/8
x > 0.125
am I missing something?
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