Re: $225- why do I always get the toughest decisions in my one $200 SN
We are:
11% vs 3 fours
53% vs AdJc
He has 7d 8d probably as much as he had Ax Tx
we are calling 1300 to win 1770.
lets say he has a set half the time and Ad x the other half
44.5% we lose 1300 -578
5.5% we win 1770 +97.35 480.65 240
23.5% we lose 1300 -305.5
26.5% we win 1770 +469.05 164 328
-316.6 chips if its 50 50 set or flush draw plus over card
+88 chips if we are up up against an over and a flush draw twice as much as vs a set.
This ignores ICM which tilts more towards a fold, and I think its unrealistic he has less than an over plus a flush draw very often.
What is everyone expecting to see that doesn't involve us going out at least half the time early on getting 1.3:1 odds?
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