[xorbie]

vanveen is right. the whole idea of epistemic types is a hot topic in game theory these days, and it has clear applications to poker.

there are mixed strategies to be played, of course, but in an individual hand the person you are playing (incorrectly, perhaps, but so it goes) either does or does not believe you are bluffing. so generally they will either call top 10% (totally random) or top 30% of their hands, meaning you can actually "value bluff" the 15-20% percentile of your hands because the will fold better and call worse.