Thread: Randomness
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Old 11-02-2007, 03:42 PM
Adrian20XX Adrian20XX is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 172
Default Re: Randomness

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When a poker hand is dealt the event is supposedly random and not dependant on outside variables.

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Deals are random because we don't know the initial conditions, nor do we know what events will be applied to the deck - how many shuffles, how thorough, etc.


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I totally agree with this point, the deal is deterministic in this case unless the only not deterministic variable (i.e. the player that is living the day again) takes another action.

But, as you would be constantly adjusting your actions, the deal will be constantly changing and the only deal you are sure of is the first one, and the ones that you "fix" your actions, from the moment you make a change from the previous day, you start to play new cards. Let's say the first day, you seat at the table, first hand, and try to catch a flush draw. You call the flop and turn, and fold the river. Now the dealer takes the cards in a certain order, shuffles the deck 17 times, and gets a deck with state X.

Second day, you seat at the table, get the same first hand. Now you know the flush will not come, so you decide to fold on the flop. Now the initial condition of the deck is different, and the dealer may shuffle it differently. So, the starting deck for hand two will not be X, will be Y.

So you'll be able to get the same cards, as long as you do the same actions. If you decide to chase the flush the second day, but still you don't do it in the same way (time for example, you make a joke to the dealer, whatever), second hand will not get the deck X.

So, you can adjust it hand by hand to have a perfect session. But probably this will not be the best EV session, they might be a session with a couple of losses in betweeen, that gets the deck in better conditions for later hands so you get a bigger EV.

Regards ...
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