[DesertCat]

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as for letting a-rod walk - uh this lineup doesn't look all that good like this:

damon
jeter
abreu
matsui
posada
cano
betemit
1B (invariably some [censored]-hitting 1B)
cabrera

there's not that much power in that lineup. lot of guys who can hit 20 home runs but not many who can hit 30.

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That lineup looks like one of the best in the AL, and if the extra money is spent on pitching (I am thinking of options now, it will be more than fine. .

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The 2007 Yankees had an OPS+ of 123, the best in the AL. Second was 111 (Detroit), third was 110 (Boston).

OPS+ 2007 Career
damon 101 104
jeter 126 123
abreu 119 135
matsui 128 126
posada 160 126
cano 124 119
betemit 84 98
cabrera 93 95
giambi 112 148
-------------------------
A-Rod 183 148

Swapping A-Rod for Betemit in 2007 would be enough to drop the Yankees to the range of Boston/Detroit. And if in addition Posada had hit like a typical catcher (well below 100 OPS+) the Yankees offense would have probably been barely above average. Those two guys are the main reasons the Yankees had a great offense.

Posada is almost certain to decline substantially, and not because of steroid usage (it's offensive that a so called yankees fan would make these unsubstantiated claims). Other aging risks include Abreu, Matsui, Damon, & Jeter, so the offense has the potential to fall off a cliff and be average at best without A-Rod. If you view them positionally, your 2008 expectations have to be something like this (I don't have access to positionally adjusted EQAs, so this is all guesstimates from OPS).

Above Average Hitters For Their Positions
- ARod. At least 50% better than the average 3B.
- Posada. Almost twice the hitter this year as an average catcher.
- Jeter. At least 30% better hitter than the average SS.
- Cano. 20-30% better than average 2B.

Average Hitters For Their Positions
- Matsui. He's always been above average, was still above average in 07, but he's getting old and you can't expect more than average.
- Abreu was still above average in 07, but he's declining fast.
- Cabrera. He could potentially improve enough to be an above average hitting centerfielder during his career.

Below Average Hitters
- Damon. He's an above average hitter for a centerfielder, but below average at the corners or DH.
- Betamit. Maybe he's close to average for 2B, but not for 3B.
- Giambi. In 07 he was below average hitter for 1B and a lousy defender. He might actually have been an average full time DH given the dregs that usually get trotted out there in the AL. He could easily rebound to be above average again or fall off a cliff.
- Dougie Eychart. League average hitter is below average at 1B.

A-Rod & Posada are the biggest offensive outperformers the Yankees have and it's not even close. Not only is Posada almost certain to regress, but he's also a defensive liability. Jeter is tied for the best hitting AL SS, but he's also a terrible defensive liability. A-Rod is by far the best hitting 3B in the AL, and is a decent, if not good, defensive player. If he's gone, and Posada regresses, the offense won't even be top third.

A-Rod is also one of the greatest bargains in the MLB. The Yankees are only paying him $16M a year ($6M less than Jeter). And A-Rod is almost certain to sign an extension that allows the Yankees to only have to pay $16M of his salary for each of the next three while Texas continues to pick up $11M per year. The Yankees will give him a 4 year $100M extension, which makes his total cost about $22M per year for the next seven years. It's unlikely any team is going to offer greater than a 7/$180M package for A-Rod's decline years of his thirties. Boras can't take the risk of losing the Yankees by opting out. He'll do his best to get another $20M or so, but they'll sign that extension. The Yankees will only have to tie up around 8% of their payroll over the next three years in a player who this year contributed close to 1/3 of their offensive outperformance, while being a plus defender. If for some reason I'm wrong and they lose him, it would be a huge mistake and set the team back years.

The Yankees main problem is their lousy pitching staff (ERA+ of 96). To win championships you need two top front line starters that can each pitch twice in a 7 game series, along with a deep bullpen. The Yankees don't have even one top starter now (Wang was #14 in the AL in ERA), and their bullpen is paper thin. They need to fix this without losing their offensive MVP.

Maybe the young guns will develop and fix this problem, but if they can shift Wang (ERA+ 117) to the number two spot by trading some prospects to sign Santana (ERA+ 140) as their ace, they suddenly have two strong starters to pitch four games in a short series. Is it worth giving up Joba or Hughes or ??? I don't know. If Joba is a 125 ERA+ starter next year, the problem is already solved, you just need to find some bullpen help.