[elindauer]

Tough spot.

Since you describe SB as a very strong player, this seems like a reasonable time to do some game theory analysis.

What's your river range? I'd guess that after this action, you probably hold

{QJc(1), 33(3), KQo(9), KT(9)}

Villain, a strong player, is getting 17:2 to bluff raise, so between you and the 3rd player you have to call him 90% of the time to stop him from exploiting you by bluff-raising missed straight draws.

IMO, villain has made it clear that he may not call a raise. He's been looking for an excuse to fold this whole hand, and this may well push him over the edge. So you can't really count on the 3rd guy to eat up a lot of that 90% you need between you.

Returning to your hand range... 33 is in the top 18% of the narrow hand range I gave for you. As such, this is a clear call from a game theory POV. I'd say you should call KT as well, fold KQ.


So, back to the hand... we can't fold by default. Can we make an exploitable fold to take advantage of this player's passive tendencies? Let's recheck that description "very strong player. tight, aggressive." nope. Doesn't seem like a good guy to fold to.

make the crying call.
-Eric

PS. Although I'd expect SB to raise the turn with KT, it doesn't seem like an impossible holding here. Admittedly, it would be very tricky to wait for the river to check-raise, but given that you have represented a made hand, and the 3rd guy looks like he wants to fold, waiting until the river to trap the 3rd guy for an extra bet feels like a thought a very strong player might have.