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Old 11-15-2007, 10:54 AM
maverickai maverickai is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 338
Default Re: T8o poster hits SD on the river

I would say you are huge favourite. Given that this kinda limits, pple will be overcalling for fun, I'm going to do some estimation if getting more overcallers is good for the river.

From Stove:
Board: 2d 4s Jd 9h Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.541% 19.02% 09.52% 243515 121854.50 { KdTd, KhTh, KsTs, QcTc, QdTd, Qc9c, Tc8c, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs, KdQh, KdQs, KhQs, KcTh, KcTs, KdTh, KdTs, QhJs, QcTd, QcTh, QcTs, QdTh, QdTs, QhTs, Qc9d, Qc9h, Qc9s, Qd9h, Qd9s, Tc8d, Tc8h, Tc8s, Td8h, Td8s }
Hand 1: 71.459% 61.94% 09.52% 792937 121855.50 { Ts8h }


Let's say you raise, and everyone folded to your re-raise, and MP2 caps it, your EV = ((0.715*5)+(-4*0.285))= 2.44BB

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Let's just say total of 3 players went to showdown, and only MP2 and you have a chance to win,
you win =((0.715*4)+(0.285*-2))= 2.29BB

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Let's just say total of 4 players went to showdown, and only MP2 and you have a chance to win,
you win =((0.715*6)+(0.285*-2))= 3.72BB

With 4 players overcalling, you stand to lose least, and win most. So looks like calling is better, since at such limits, pple tend to make crying calls.
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