[Sherman]

Thanks Bond.

Ok. Here is why I am posting this hand. After I bet the turn (and before villain raised believe it or not) I realized I should NOT have bet the turn.

I fell into a trap of "OMG I have top two, I have to bet".

But there is ZERO reason to bet the turn IMO.

The board is NOT drawy. That means it is unlikely villain is on a draw and I don't mind giving a free card.

While the turn did give me top two pair, it did NOT improve my hand against villains range. If he has a worse K, I was already ahead. If he had a set, I was already behind.

What's more is that if he has a worse K, I am probably NOT getting two streets of value. That is, I can either bet the turn or the river against him for value, but it is very unlikely that I can bet both and expect to get called by a worse hand.

So, I should have CHECKED the turn. Both because I am either WA/WB and because I only have 1 street of value if I am ahead and checking the turn gets me that value on the river.


Also, I am very certain the river bet is a fold. A PSB on the river (that is nearly A/I) is a very strong indicator that I am beat (or tied with KQ). That is it. No other hand takes this line. Also, Baluga's theorem says that TPTK is beat on the turn if villain called on the flop and raises. My hand is essentially TPTK because there are no two pair hands that he has that take this line. The river is a trivially easy fold IMO.

So by betting the turn, I made a -EV play, but I fell into the trap of "OMG I have top two." There was no reason to bet the turn.

Anyhow, for those interested in results, I am total fish and called the river even though I should have folded. Villain showed 55 for a set.

Thanks all for your input.

Sherman