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Since the market is not static and in fact has shown a propensity to rise 10% a year on average...
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I've heard this stat many times but whenever I do a bit of research, I arrive at a number much lower.
In the year 1900 the Dow was ~60; in 2000, ~10,000. I think 100 years would qualify as "long term."
According to my compounding calculator the interest rate on 60 over 100 years that would amount to 10,000 is 5.25.
I also did the calculation for the last 10 years in which the market went from 8000 to 13,000. It comes out to ~5%.
The morale is that buying an index fund gets you about the same as a CD, but puts your principle at risk.
Dow Price History