Re: A7s
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How can you get owned you may ask? Well paying two big bets from the turn on against a very aggressive player and not seeing a showdown with a hand that has some showdown value is getting owned cuz there is definitely some value here in showing this hand down. Instead of paying 2BB's on the turn and folding the river, check/call the turn and river unimproved and you'll pay the same price but always win when you actually do have the best hand.
[/ QUOTE ]
Why is folding the river assumed? If you b/c the turn c/c the river, you always win when you have the best hand too. Then you get the benefits of betting without the disadvantages of folding. Yeah it costs you more when he has a better hand but you have to weigh that against the benefits of betting such as increased IO, hand protection, and value from worse hands that will put one or zero BB if you check to them but one, two, or three if you b/c-c/c. This is not as clear as you think. c/c-c/c has it's place, but it can get you owned just as much as weak betting. Not all LAGs auto bet when checked to and a lot more don't do it twice. That's lost value that a more loose/agressive strategy picks up.
[/ QUOTE ]
Theres nothing you said here leader that I disagree with. The main theme of my post was that knowing when to check/call with this type of hand OOP in HU pots is a very valuable tool to have in one's arsenal, and that I think the heros hand is a perfect spot to deploy this strategy.
Against most players, even lags, I believe paying 3BB's to showdown with ace high will be a negative proposition, and I believe against most lags check/calling twice will make the hero more money in the long run than bet/calling the turn and folding the river unimproved. The hero's turn bet cannot be looked at as a semibluff since no lesser hand is going to fold. What the hero's turn bet actually is, is a very thin value bet with his ace high holding. And making thin value bets oop in HU pots vs very aggressive players who will likely bet with more hands than they will call with, is just asking to get owned.
Leader, just to reiterate, I agree with all your ideas in your quoted statement, and I can think of many opponents I play with where bet/calling the turn and calling the river will be better than check/calling twice. However if all I have is a laggy read, and I dont really know how this guy plays postflop, I prefer check/calling twice unimproved.
[/ QUOTE ]
I understand what you're saying and if we had just A-high here I would agree, but the flush draw really does make a difference here IMO. Not only does it prevent us from being bluffed off the best hand, it also significantly reduces the other negative effects of being raised. Specifically, the FD discounts the price of putting in 3 BB by allowing us to win when behind 20-27% of the time depending on how we look at our A outs. When we have just A-high and he raises, we're faced with the unpleasant decision of folding our 15-20%* share of the pot or making a bad call down. This is solved by giving him the chance to bet all his hands but raise none of them. When we have the flush draw though, we're not put in this double negative position. It's simply a matter of measuring the cost of those times he raises us with a better hand or folds something that he would have bet and we would have liked to call(i.e. so random Kx) vs. everything else.
I think this equates to a bet. It's certainly close, but I don't think this is a place for the traditional reasons to c/c-c/c.
*this is my rough estimate of the amount we have the best hand when he raises.
|